FAPRI outlook signals crop price recovery
While producers across the High Plains finalize their plans for spring planting, the latest outlook from the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) paints a mixed picture for U.S. agriculture through the rest of 2026.
Released in late March, FAPRI’s 2026 Agricultural Market Outlook highlights a growing divide between the crop and livestock sectors, as cattle producers benefit from historically strong returns and row crop farmers face their third consecutive year of tight margins.
“Net returns continue to be poor for most row crops as input prices remain elevated and crop prices have moderated. The cattle sector, in contrast, is experiencing record prices and returns to cow/calf producers,” the report states.
Specific to the farming sector, the report shows modest recovery in crop prices, continued tight margins for grain producers and ongoing uncertainty regarding national policy and the global market.
Prices, acreage, production and demand
After experiencing record highs in 2021-23, followed by sharp declines, grain and oilseed prices are expected to post modest gains in the year ahead.
Despite recovering, however, prices remain below average levels reported during the past decade.
FAPRI projects corn prices for the 2026 crop year will average around $4.21 to $4.31 per bushel, representing a slight improvement from recent lows but still well below the highs seen earlier in the last 10 years.
Soybeans are forecast at $10.39 per bushel for the 2026-27 marketing year, while wheat prices are expected to rebound from $4.90 to $5.58 per bushel.
Prices for other commodities like cotton, rice and sorghum are expected to increase modestly, although margins will likely remain poor.
FAPRI’s outlook also highlights notable adjustments to crop acreage, driven by relative crop prices and trade uncertainty.
In 2025, these two factors caused a widespread shift from soybeans to corn, and this trend is expected to partially reverse in 2026.
According to FAPRI, corn acreage is projected to fall to 94.9 million acres, while soybean plantings are expected to increase to 83.3 million acres.
Driven in part by this reduced acreage, FAPRI’s projections also suggest a slight decline in corn production in 2026, although this decrease is expected to be offset by softer demand across several categories, including exports, feed use and residual consumption.
As a result, ending stocks – or carryout – are projected to remain fairly ample and continue weighing on price potential.
Similarly, soybean and wheat markets are expected to remain well-supplied, and without a major weather or political event causing disruptions, the likelihood of significant prices rallies should be limited, FAPRI reports.
Net farm income
Despite ongoing challenges in the crop sector, overall farm income is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, partially supported by increased government payments.
The FAPRI report shows net farm income declined by roughly one-third between 2022-24, largely due to falling crop returns. However, expanded outlays through federal programs and crop insurance are expected to provide a financial cushion.
“Provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act increased Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), Natural Resources Conservation Service and crop insurance government outlays,” the report notes. “Section five CCC transfers and subsequent expenditures are assumed to continue in the current-policy baseline, with total mandatory outlays in the outlook at similar levels of expenditure since Fiscal Year 2019.”
Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
