Experts expect shift in chicken prices amid fertility, bird flu concerns

Chicken prices have dipped slightly on the heels of increased broiler production, but Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts expect output to slow and prices to climb.

Dr. David Anderson, AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M University (TAMU) Department of Agricultural Economics, said high beef prices and trends for more protein in American diets are helping poultry demand.

U.S. broiler production jumped from 46.5 billion pounds in 2024 to 47.5 billion pounds in 2025 and is projected to reach 47.6 billion pounds this year, as it has already increased 3.5 percent since Jan. 1. 

However, prices have been lower overall compared to last year, and Anderson believes this could trigger a slowdown in production.

Competitive prices help chicken demand

Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts spiked near $2.77 per pound in mid-2025 before sliding to $1.16 per pound by the year’s end, according to Anderson. 

However, the January Consumer Price Index showed retail chicken breasts were higher at $4.17 per pound compared to $3.97 per pound this time last year. Legs were five cents lower per pound at $1.74 compared to $1.79 last year.

“Chicken remains a value relative to beef and continues to experience strong demand on the grocery and restaurant side,” Anderson said. “Chicken continues to benefit from creative products and ideas to expand its market share among proteins.”

But, he said, potential production disruptions could complicate supply and demand factors even more, and lower supplies could signal higher prices are ahead.

HPAI risk weighs on chicken producers

On the production side, lower feed and energy costs and technological efficiencies have helped profitability, but growers and industry experts remain concerned about highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), according to Dr. Greg Archer, associate professor and AgriLife Extension poultry specialist in the TAMU Department of Poultry Science.

Farms are placing a high priority on biosecurity but concern about broader potential impacts of HPAI – also known as bird flu – will remain until summer, he said. 

Archer further noted the primary concern is not isolated broiler farms, but laying facilities which provide fertilized eggs for broiler hatcheries. Broiler farms can recover relatively quickly, while breeder flocks can take more than a year, and the losses ripple throughout the production chain to prices at grocery stores.

“The industry is really pushing biosecurity to stay on top of the disease,” he said. “It’s a concern that isn’t going away, so the focus is limiting its impact on production.”

Industry focuses on hatchability, bird health

Bird nutrition and health also continue to be a focus as production moves away from antibiotics, Archer said. 

The industry has been quick to adopt research related to probiotics and prebiotics in feed and continues to investigate how nutrition can improve flock health.  

Egg fertility in breeder flocks remains a lingering concern for the industry. 

Fertility rates, or chick hatchability, hover around 75 percent – nine of every dozen eggs produce viable chicks – but a 2025 Texas A&M AgriLife Research study showed fertility rates could reach 60 percent by 2050.

The U.S. poultry industry produced more than nine billion broilers last year, which means 12 billion eggs were needed to meet capacity.

It would require 15 billion eggs to hatch nine billion viable broiler chicks if fertility rates continue to fall.

“Fertility rates have been an issue, and HPAI outbreaks are a threat which compounds the potential impact in a way consumers would notice,” Archer said.

Market forces weigh on production, prices

Anderson expects production to slow compared to the first quarter of 2026. 

Just like higher prices last year led to increased production, lower prices will influence output. Demand will weigh on various chicken cuts differently.

Anderson said broiler weights have trended higher in recent years to meet the broader demand for the white meat consumers prefer, but significant amounts of broiler chickens are being grown to meet specifications for restaurant chains, especially in recent years, as wings and sandwiches became menu staples.

Broader consumer demand, including seasonal spikes, continues to influence prices on certain cuts like breasts and wings which are limited by chicken biology.

“I expect to see some contraction, and this typically means prices will go higher,” Anderson said. “It will be interesting to see how beef, pork and other proteins trend as we get closer to grilling season, but it’s safe to say chicken will remain a value option in relation to beef.”

Laura Muntean is the media relations communications coordinator for the Texas A&M AgriLife Marketing and Communications Department. This article was originally published by Texas A&M AgriLife on March 5.