Fremont County Farm and Ranch Days: Keynote speaker discusses cattle market conditions during annual gathering
The 42nd Annual Fremont County Farm and Ranch Days took place Feb. 11-12 at the Fremont County Fairgrounds in Riverton.
Presented by University of Wyoming (UW) Extension, this year’s event featured presentations by UW Extension educators and workshops about livestock management and pest control, as well as a keynote speech on the current state of ag markets by Colter Brown, ag director of Northern Ag Network.
In his address titled, “Record Cattle Prices and Down Crop Markets – Where Are We Headed from Here,” Brown discussed factors influencing market conditions as well as the path forward.
Market outlook
“There is a lot to talk about this cattle market right now,” Brown began, highlighting both excitement and uncertainty regarding recent record-high cattle prices and emphasizing the market has come a long way in the past year.
“We’re easily 30 percent higher in prices than we were a year ago at this time,” Brown stated. “But talking to producers across the region, there’s a lot more uncertainty in this market right now.”
“This is probably related to how high prices are,” he added. “When you climb up so high, there’s a lot farther way to fall, but there’s also a lot of potential.”
Overall, Brown emphasized his belief in “a lot of opportunity” for cattle producers throughout the upcoming year.
His presentation in-cluded statistics and insight on factors influencing cattle market conditions including supply and demand, weather conditions and political risks.
Supply challenges
To begin, Brown shared comments on the current state of supply and demand in the cattle industry. He emphasized a heightened consumer demand for protein and American beef is driving cattle production in a positive direction, but record-low herd numbers continue to impact supply flow.
According to Brown, the two main factors at play in determining the length of the cattle cycle and profitability in the cattle market are weather and supplies.
“The cattle cycle is still the main driver of profitability in our industry,” Brown commented. “Profitability drives sales, and weather and supplies drive profitability.”
Brown noted periods of drought, particularly in 2021-22, impacted herd sizes across the nation, leading ranchers to cull animals and resulting in a tightened supply.
“When we make money, we’ll retain heifers and keep cows a little longer, but when we don’t, we start looking at those cows as liabilities instead of assets,” Brown said.
Noting the inverted relationship between supply and prices, Brown explained prices have been supported as the supply of cattle has decreased.
Further, he noted beef cow inventory – especially in Wyoming – has continued to decline in spite of heightened prices.
According the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent Cattle Inventory Report, Wyoming saw one of the steepest contractions of beef cow numbers in the country and currently sits at the lowest number of beef cows in the state since 1985.
Looking ahead, Brown admitted he expects “a slow path towards growing cow numbers” influenced negatively by limiting factors such as weather, input costs and lack of labor.
Demand impacts
Brown also admitted the demand for American beef continues to remain strong, even though a tightened beef supply may mean less availability and heightened expense to consumers.
Brown emphasized the main thing consumers look for is consistency, and he admitted producers and packers may have a tricky road to navigate while figuring out how to support beef production with lower fed cattle numbers.
He noted an increase in carcass size may help offset the impacts of reduced commercial fed cattle slaughter, but this solution runs the risk of producing cuts of meat which are too big to be marketed successfully to the average consumer.
At the end of the day, Brown acknowledged consumers still want beef despite higher retail prices.
“Probably the best news for producers is the demand we’re seeing for beef,” Brown said, noting a demand for home-raised beef continues to surge as Americans prioritize protein in their diets.
“The amount of money being spent on our product has increased, which means more dollars added into this system,” Brown added, noting profit has also finally balanced out to benefit cow/calf producers in addition to meatpackers.
Brown attributes rise in consumer demand to increased quality, noting between 80 and 85 percent of carcasses today are routinely grading Choice Plus and Prime.
“The industry has focused in on quality from a seedstock and commercial level,” Brown said. “Focusing on the end experience for the customer has turned demand around.”
Political risks
Brown also acknowledged some political factors posing risks to the beef industry, particularly the ongoing conversation around imported beef.
“Political risk is high for the cattle industry right now,” Brown admitted, recalling instances where comments by President Donald Trump and trade uncertainty resulted in direct market impacts in 2025.
However, Brown em-phasized both imports and exports are necessary components of the cattle industry, and he noted increased imports are a natural counterpart to heightened cattle prices.
He also acknowledged the ongoing threat of the New World screwworm which has shut down fed cattle imports from Mexico, cautioning producers to be wary of a potential turn in the markets once imports resume or if the fly makes its way across the border.
In closing, Brown shared some key takeaways, overall predictions and hopes for the future, including a belief beef demand will stay high and a hope for packing capacity and herd numbers to align as consumers demand more meat.
“Political risks remain high, but I think the big takeaway here is the cow/calf producer has leverage in this market,” he concluded.
Grace Skavdahl is the editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
