Holiday Prices: 2025 Thanksgiving dinner predicted to be easier on shoppers’ wallets
The price for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner is expected to be slightly more affordable this year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 40th Annual Thanksgiving Cost Survey, which found the average price of a “classic” holiday feast for 10 people rings in at around $55.18.
This number pencils out to roughly $5.52 per person and a decrease of nearly five percent from last year, marking the third straight year of declining costs.
Despite this downward trend, however, AFBF notes prices still remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels and they reflect the struggle of farm and ranch families working to keep grocery store shelves stocked.
Savings and squeezes
The AFBF survey is conducted each year during the week leading up to Thanksgiving with the help of volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico who record prices on staple items used in a “classic holiday feast” at their local grocery stores.
Although many families have put their own modern spin on the traditional Thanksgiving dinner, the survey works to capture the cost of key ingredients many Americans will be taking home in grocery bags this holiday season, including turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix, pie crust, whipping cream and whole milk.
Overall, the survey found “a mixed bag of savings and squeezes,” with some grocery items dropping in price and others seeing a noticeable increase.
Turkey – the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving meal – is one major reason for the overall decrease in cost.
According to AFBF, turkey has historically accounted for about 43 percent of the total meal price, but this year, it will represent only 39 percent – the lowest share in 25 years.
The survey reports a 16-pound frozen turkey now averages $21.50 or about $1.34 per pound – more than 16 percent cheaper than in 2024 – driven by softening consumer demand and a more stable supply following earlier disruptions caused by the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak.
Prices for dinner rolls, stuffing and fresh cranberries have also declined, with AFBF reporting reductions of 14.6 percent, nine percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.
The report also shows pumpkin pie mix and shells holding steady.
Although some centerpiece items are cheaper this year, AFBF notes sweet potatoes, frozen green peas, veggie trays, whole milk and whipping cream will push the bill back up.
“Price increases for fresh produce and key baking ingredients reflect higher costs throughout the supply chain,” AFBF writes. “Farmers who grow fruits, vegetables and potatoes for many Thanksgiving staples continue to face elevated expenses for fertilizer, fuel, machinery, labor and land, which tightens already narrow margins and limits production capacity.”
Because of this, fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes have posted some of the most notable increases, with veggie trays jumping 61 percent from 2024 and sweet potatoes climbing 37 percent.
AFBF notes this is likely due to weather and natural disasters, especially hurricanes that hit North Carolina – the nation’s largest sweet potato producer – cutting yields and tightening supplies.
Additionally, in 2018, AFBF added the cost of ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans to the survey to reflect a wider variety of pallets.
When adding these items to the bill, the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal rises to $77.09 or $7.71 per person – virtually unchanged at a decrease of 28 cents from 2024.
Discounts and bundles
To help households stretch their holiday budgets, several major retailers have rolled out generous Thanksgiving deals.
According to an Oct. 21 press release, Walmart announced it will offer a ready-made, fully-bundled Thanksgiving meal basket for 10 people priced at $39.92, amounting to just under four dollars per person.
Kroger’s announced it will bring back its popular “Freshgiving” bundle, priced at less than $4.75 per person for a 16-ingredient spread to feed 10 people, and Aldi launched its own Thanksgiving assortment for a similar-sized gathering with similar ingredients at roughly $40.
Bigger menus and regional differences
Despite these discounts and bundles, AFBF analysts point out Thanksgiving dinners won’t cost the same across the board, as the survey menu represents a basic, no-frills package. Larger gatherings or those who prefer name-brand ingredients, a larger spread of sides and desserts and alcohol should expect to pay even more.
Experts estimate a more mid-range Thanksgiving meal with additional and/or higher-quality items will cost closer to $80 to $95 for a party of 10.
AFBF also highlights regional differences.
According to the survey, individuals celebrating in the West are predicted to see the highest cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for a party of 10 at $61.75 – nearly 12 percent more than the national average. Those in the Northeast will also pay more than the national average, with grocery bills ringing in at $60.82.
Families celebrating down South will see the most affordable holiday meal at $50.01, followed by the Midwest at $54.38.
Overall, AFBF notes with smart planning, Thanksgiving 2025 is set to be easier on shoppers’ wallets, although the final price tag will ultimately depend on the size of the gathering and how traditional the menu is.
Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
