USDA still betting on record-high corn yields
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, released on July 11, didn’t have a lot of bombshell surprises for traders to digest, although the agency’s assessment of the current corn crop still assumes record-high per-acre yields and total production.
Grain prices generally saw moderate cuts immediately following this report.
Of particular note, December corn futures faded to $4.11. This was the third day out of four where prices hit a contract low.
Corn
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made no changes to its per-acre yield estimates for July, still assuming an average of 181 bushels per acre (bpa).
However, the agency slightly lowered its production estimates from 15.82 billion bushels in June, down to 15.70 billion bushels in July. This was also a bit below the average trade guess of 15.73 billion bushels.
USDA trimmed total usage by 50 million bushels, based on lower feed and residual use. The season-average farm price remained unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
Domestic ending stocks also decreased slightly from 1.36 billion bushels in June down to 1.34 billion. Analysts were expecting to see this number hit 1.35 billion bushels.
Robust foreign demand for U.S. corn in recent months prompted USDA to hike its export forecast for the fourth month in a row.
USDA raised estimated 2024-25 U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels, or almost four percent, to a record 2.75 billion bushels, which would slightly top the previous record of 2.74 billion bushels in 2020-21.
The revision surpassed analysts’ expectations for an increase of 50 million to 75 million bushels. USDA now sees U.S. corn exports at a record for the current year.
In South America, Brazilian production potential remained steady at 5.19 billion bushels. Argentina’s production potential was also unchanged with 1.96 billion bushels.
In the meantime, lower supplies in the U.S. and China led to moderately lower 2025-26 global ending stocks, which shifted from 275.24 million metric tons (MMT) in June down to 272.08 MMT.
In contrast, analysts were expecting to see this volume rise to 277.46 MMT.
Soybeans
USDA is still expecting to see soybean yields come in at 52.5 bpa, mirroring analysts’ expectations. Production is expected to fade slightly lower, moving from 4.34 billion bushels in June down to 4.33 billion bushels. This nearly matched the average trade guess.
USDA also assessed a “higher crush, reduced exports and increased ending stocks compared to last month.”
The 2025-26 soy crush was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion, which the agency notes is due to higher demand for soy oil used for biofuel and references the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed rule for required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes in 2026-27.
Domestic ending stocks were unchanged at 350 million bushels. This was modestly below the average trade guess of 358 million bushels.
The season-average farm price faded 15 cents lower compared to June at $10.10 per bushel. Soymeal prices also fell $20 per short ton to $290, but soy oil prices trended seven cents higher to 53 cents per pound.
South American production estimates held steady, with Brazil at 6.21 billion bushels and Argentina at 1.83 billion bushels.
Global ending stocks for 2025-26 increased from 125.3 MMT in June up to 126.07 MMT.
Wheat
USDA pegged all-wheat production for the upcoming 2025-26 season at 1.92 billion bushels, which was 14 million bushels above the average trade guess. Of this total 1.34 billion bushels are winter wheat, 504 million bushels are spring wheat and 80 million bushels are durum.
Domestic ending stocks were steady at 851 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2025-26 eased from 898 million bushels in June down to 890 million. This is still five percent higher year-over-year, however.
Wheat export expectations moved 25 million bushels higher to 850 million based on a “strong early pace of sales and shipments,” according to USDA. The season-average farm price (SAFP) held steady at $5.4 per bushel. This is modestly below last year’s SAFP of $5.52.
Global ending stocks for 2025-26 eased from 262.76 MMT in June down to 261.52 MMT. This was modestly below the average trade guess of 262.69 MMT.
Ben Potter is a senior editor of Farm Futures. This article was originally published by Farm Futures on July 11.
