Meteorologist provides upcoming weather outlook
Cattle producers from across the West gathered in Cheyenne Nov. 10-11 for the 2025 Range Beef Cow Symposium, where Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe delivered a forecast for upcoming weather patterns.
Bledsoe, founder of Bledsoe Weather – a company which advises ag producers through private forecasting – opened his presentation with a joke about the “17 weather apps” individuals often scroll through when trying to understand the upcoming forecast.
He said, “My job is to take all of that information and make it actionable and usable in a real-life setting for farmers and ranchers.”
Drought conditions persist
To start, Bledsoe walked through a series of precipitation maps broken into six-month, three-month and one-month time frames.
While summer moisture kept much of Wyoming, western South Dakota and southeast Montana in fairly good shape this fall, he pointed to expanding drought conditions in Texas and across the Southern Plains.
“We’re never very far away from drought, and we’re starting to see dryness expand northward. It might not be right it our backyard, but it doesn’t take long for trouble to travel far,” he stated.
Although many northern producers saw adequate subsoil moisture, Bledsoe noted fall months trended drier this year, and he warned producers to stay aware of expanding drought conditions, even if they aren’t noticing them now.
“Southeast Montana, northeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado got moisture early on, so they’re doing okay, but in the Plains, we are never very far away from drought,” he said. “There is a lot of country right now dealing with dryness and drought. Just because we have been fortunate in the midsection of the country doesn’t mean other areas aren’t struggling.”
Ocean temperatures flip flop
Bledsoe admitted most of his forecast hinges on what he believes is a “highly-unusual and fast-moving shift” in Pacific sea-surface temperatures.
While the U.S. is currently in a weak La Niña climate pattern, Bledsoe said models from forecasting centers in Europe, Australia and the U.S. agree the Pacific Ocean is likely to swing to neutral by early spring and then to El Niño by late spring or early summer.
“The flip flop can happen abruptly in the next few months or so,” he said. “Water shouldn’t change temperatures that fast, but we have a massive pool of warm water in the western Pacific just waiting for trade winds to weaken. When they do, it sloshes east and the pattern flips.”
He noted this transition recently happened in 2022-24, and he said 2026 could follow a similar – but not identical – trajectory.
According to Bledsoe, another important factor in the winter weather forecast is the Atlantic Quad-Pole Mode, a pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic which influences winter storms across the states.
Last year, the North Atlantic was warm, but this year it’s significantly cooler. Bledsoe pointed out this difference could steer storms into the northern tier more frequently while keeping the southern tier comparatively dry.
“We’re looking at a blend of what the pattern did last winter and what it’s setting up to do now,” he explained. “And the message is pretty clear – the further north you are, the more active this winter will look.”
Cold winter, wet spring
Regarding winter, Bledsoe shared temperature and precipitation forecasts for the next three months based on the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model.
From December through January, he said there will likely be cold anomalies across Montana, the Dakotas, northeast Wyoming and northern Nebraska, with a sharp north-to-south gradient expected across the midsection of the country.
“In February and March, we should see it start to warm back up a little bit, with a few little cold pockets in the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies. Then in April, we start to lose some of that, and the warmth starts to magnify across the four-corner states out West,” he shared.
When it comes to precipitation, Bledsoe said the Pacific Northwest, Wyoming and the Dakotas will most likely see recurring moisture, while California, New Mexico, Arizona and West Texas will be the most likely to struggle with persistent dryness.
“The further north you go, the rougher the winter this going to be. I would plan accordingly,” he stated.
Additionally, Bledsoe explained the transition from La Niña to El Niño – especially when it aligns with the seasonal spring shift – can fuel volatility.
“March could be wild,” Bledsoe said, pointing to historical analog years which saw large temperature swings and active storm tracks.
He noted encouraging signs for April and May precipitation across the central and southern Plains states, with the European model showing a notable “cool pocket” in southwest Nebraska, western Kansas and West Texas, which is often a precursor for above-average spring moisture.
Key takeaways
In conclusion, Bledsoe compared the emerging weather pattern to 2023 – the last La Niña to El Niño year – when California saw record snow, the Southern Plains flooded in May, the central U.S. dealt with a mid-summer heat dome and fall turned off very warm for many western producers.
He expressed particular concern for continued dry patterns througout California, the Southwest and the Southeast this winter and urged producers in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest to prepare for a cold and snowy winter.
“Historically, La Niña produces some pretty extreme and volatile pattern change, with wild swings in temperature. There are some pretty significant cold fronts in history when dealing with La Niña that I would also like to draw attention to,” he said.
For the coming spring, Bledsoe said his concerns are that the transition usually produces active weather and big storms, meaning producers should be prepared for late-season blizzards during calving season.
“History suggests when we have an El Niño in the summer, we have to be very wary of drought potential, and I think this is especially true for the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, parts of the Great Plains and the Corn Belt,” he said. “Producers need to be prepared for the pattern to pivot and to be quite different from what happens in the spring. El Niño summers can be hot in the West, the Southwest and the South.”
Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
