Global sunflower production booms

Global sunflower production in 2025-26 is forecast to increase eight percent from the previous year to 56.2 million metric tons (MMT). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects increased production in Russia, the European Union (EU), Ukraine, Turkey and the U.S.

Ukraine’s sunflower production is forecast to recover moderately from 2024-25 as farmers shift planted area from grain in favor of oilseeds. However, the crop will remain significantly lower than pre-conflict levels. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest producer, followed by Ukraine and the EU.

Seed exports are forecast to remain relatively flat at 2.35 MMT this year as Russia and Ukraine resume crushing a larger portion of their crop domestically. 

Global sunflower seed stocks at the end of 2025-26 are forecast at 3.26 MMT, which is below the five-year average.

Worldwide increases

Global sunflower crush volume is forecast to increase by 4.1 MMT to 51.8 MMT. Sunflower oil production for 2025-26 is forecast to increase by 1.8 MMT to 21.9 MMT on higher sunflower crush in Ukraine, the EU, Russia, China, Turkey and the U.S.

Partially offsetting is lower crush in Argentina and Kazakhstan due to lower sunflower production. 

Global sunflower oil exports are expected to increase about one MMT to 13.7 MMT on higher shipments from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.

Imports of sunflower oil for China and India are forecast to increase to 1.2 MMT and 3.2 MMT, respectively. 

Global sunflower oil consumption for 2025-26 is projected to grow seven percent to 20.4 MMT on higher supply and competitive prices. This increase is projected in the major consuming countries of India, China and the EU.

With global demand growth keeping up with global supply, global sunflower oil ending stocks for 2025-26 are forecast at 2.4 MMT, flat compared with 2024-25.

U.S. sunflower production for 2025 is still undetermined and will not be known until this fall. 

Initial industry estimates pegged 2025 U.S. sunflower production at 1.8 billion pounds, which would represent an increase of 57 percent from last year. The higher production is based on an increase in planted area from 720,800 to 1.07 million acres and trend yields for oil-type and confection sunflowers.

On March 1, USDA reported seed stocks for all sunflower seed types at 564 million pounds, down 52 percent from last year. Using this stocks figure and estimated production should lead to minimal ending stocks at the end of this marketing year given current demand. It also sets up a very positive price trend through the 2025-26 marketing year.

These figures can change dramatically over the course of the next few months depending upon weather conditions this summer and fall. 

The smaller 2024 U.S. sunflower crop should keep old-crop prices firm, and there is a strong likelihood price premiums will be in place to encourage growers to desiccate and harvest early.

Birdfood demand should also start to heat up this month. Overall, new-crop price direction will be driven by demand news and eventual 2025 crop production.

John Sandbakken of Mandan, N.D. has been the executive director of the National Sunflower Association (NSA) since 2012. Before his current post, he was NSA’s international marketing director for 16 years. This article was originally published by Dakota Farmer on June 23.