Summer weather outlook provided

As the weather pattern shifts away from La Niña, Meteorologist Don Day, Jr. believes Wyoming will likely see warmer, wetter weather this summer and fall compared to last year. 

Each year, Day presents the weather outlook for coming months during the Wyoming Bankers Association’s Agricultural Bankers Conference, which was held on May 14-15 at Eastern Wyoming College in Torrington this year. 

“We are springboarding into a really important time of year in Wyoming,” Day began. “May through June are typically the wettest months of the year, and it is absolutely critical we get wet. If we don’t, then we’re obviously going to have some problems.” 

A warm, wet forecast

Although the National Weather Service’s (NWS) probability data predicts a warmer, drier late spring and summer, Day doesn’t necessarily agree. With the exit of La Niña, he is optimistic the Cowboy State will see greater amounts of precipitation in coming months. 

“NWS forecasts a warmer and drier than normal summer all over the Intermountain West,” he admitted. “Do I think this is going to be true in some places? Yes and no. In reality, we have islands of dry and islands of wet.” 

“I do think it is going to be warmer than normal this summer in Wyoming though, but not as warm as they say,” he added. 

In regards to precipitation, Day said all indications show a better thunderstorm season in Wyoming. 

“Honestly, if we are going to get rain in Wyoming between the middle of June and middle of October, it’s going to be from a thunderstorm, and if we don’t have a good thunderstorm season, it makes things worse,” he explained. 

“The summer monsoon, which is the thunderstorm pattern we see in July and August in Wyoming, starts in June in Mexico, Arizona and New Mexico, working its way up,” Day continued. “We knew by June of last year it was going to be a bad thunderstorm season because when the water temperatures are colder, the monsoon weakens. But we are already starting off warmer than we were a year ago, which is why I think it’s not going to be as hot as NWS is saying and why I think it’s going to be more wet.”  

Additionally, Day noted if water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean begin to warm up quicker, there will likely be more wet, spring storms across Wyoming for the rest of May and into June.

“And we’re probably going to have the best chance I’ve seen in a long time for rain in east-central Wyoming,” he said. 

According to Day, soil moisture profiles are also important to consider when forecasting summer weather conditions. 

“If there is a soil moisture deficit, there will be problems in the summer because we have natural feedback in the atmosphere from the moisture in the soil moving into the air, which helps with thunderstorms and summer showers,” he stated. 

“The areas I am most concerned about this summer are those with dry soils right now, and the only thing that can really change this is about three to four inches of rain over the next six weeks, which would be hard to do,” he added. “Where we see bad soil moisture profiles is where we are most concerned about getting droughty this summer.” 

Drought conditions improve

On this note, Day pointed out, while some areas across the state have seen huge improvements regarding drought conditions, others are still struggling. 

“It all depends on where you are,” he said.

Overall, drought has been easing, but Day likened it to a puddle, noting puddles evaporate from the edges inward. Similarly, areas geographically located at the center of a drought will be the last to recover. 

“Eastern and central Wyoming and western Nebraska are in the middle of the ‘puddle,’ and the last place to get out of a drought is in the middle,” he explained. “The good news is we are seeing precipitation return around the edges – southern Colorado, southern Kansas and northern New Mexico have been really wet the last few weeks. But the middle of the drought is going to be the last to get better.”

He added, “This is what’s going to make it tough this summer. I just don’t see enough moisture coming for the rest of May and into June to completely turn things around for those in the center of the drought.” 

While it may take time for these areas to recover, Day said he doesn’t believe drought conditions will worsen this year.

Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.