Market Highs: Cattle and beef markets kick off National Beef Month with new records

With an upward trend in temperatures and a few early holidays to kick of the summer grilling season, May has been deemed National Beef Month in the U.S. 

Seemingly in response, cattle and beef markets have been celebrating with new record highs for the past couple of weeks. 

Live cattle futures are record high 

According to Trader PhD Ag Marketing Head of Market Content Dawson Schmitt and University of Mississippi Associate Professor Josh Maples, fed cash cattle prices began surging at the beginning of the month to a record $222.52 per hundredweight (cwt), a $35 increase from a year ago and up $20 per cwt since the beginning of the year. 

Maples further notes the CME June Live Cattle futures contract closed around $213 per cwt on May 5, while Schmitt points out, due to tight feeder cattle supplies and a surge in fed cattle prices, the CME Feeder Cattle Index also reached new heights, topping $296 on the same day.

During the second week of May, fed cash cattle again saw record high prices. 

According to Commodity Futures Broker and Livestock Agent Trey Freeman, cattle in the South traded at $218 to $220 per cwt, a steady two dollars higher than the previous week, while cattle in the North traded $225 to $228 per cwt, which was three to six dollars higher than the week before. 

Freeman also notes dressed trade in the North was five to $10 dollars higher, at $355 to $360 per cwt. 

“Futures responded to those new record-high cash prices with new record highs of their own,” Freeman says in a May 14 BEEF Magazine article. “June live cattle finished up $3.57 for the week at $202.05 per cwt.” 

“Feeder cattle futures finished $3.02 to $3.55 per cwt higher on the week, with the largest gains in the late summer and fall months,” he continues. “August feeder cattle managed two consecutive closes over $300 per cwt to end the week.” 

Beef demand continues to grow 

Despite a decline in exports due to tariff and trade war issues, experts note strong domestic demand – especially as summer grilling season ramps up – has kept inventories tight, and consumers have proved to be willing spenders for purchasing beef as prices continue to rise to new records. 

However, Freeman points out a slow slaughter pace and gain in boxed beef value will determine beef demand in the summer months ahead. 

“If sharply lower kills persist, the pace at which boxed beef prices advance will provide a good litmus test of what to expect for beef demand in the months ahead,” he states. “A lethargic advance into June would suggest consumers aren’t as willing to open their wallets at the beef counter. This might signal high retail prices are no longer sustainable.” 

“A rapid advance would suggest, outside of the broader economic fallout, the threat of a steep downturn in beef demand is less severe than many currently perceive, potentially opening the door to even higher retail prices,” he continues.

Freeman also notes the all-fresh beef retail price has typically peaked late in the third quarter or into the fourth quarter over the past two years. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest data, released in March, all-fresh beef retail prices were reported at $88.42 per pound, up 54 cents from a year ago and $1.19 higher than in 2023. 

Beef exports, however, declined by 654 metric tons (mt) from the week prior, a decline of four percent or 1,119 mt. 

U.S. beef exports are 17,720 mt lower year-to-date, representing a six percent decrease. 

Freeman goes on to report, over the past six weeks, exports to China have declined significantly due to the trade war – down 8,716 mt from the same time last year. 

On the other hand, exports to Korea were up 8,994 mt for the same timeframe, while a weak U.S. dollar is affecting trade in Japan. 

Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.