Meuret claims no surprises in recent Grain Stocks report
The most recent quarterly Grain Stocks report produced by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), was released on Jan. 12.
“There weren’t a lot of surprises,” commented John Meuret from J.E. Meuret Grain Company in an interview with University of Nebraska-Lincoln Market Journal.
In summary, the Grain Stocks report stated that corn stocks are up slightly from December 2014. Soybean stocks are up seven percent, and all wheat stocks are up 14 percent from this time last year.
Although he expected U.S. soybean stocks to be a bit higher, the market performed predictably over the last quarter.
According to the report, exports were weak, which Meuret attributes to high prices for commodities in the U.S. and a good performance record in South America.
“Brazil is able to perform. Four or five years ago, they didn’t perform, so the Chinese came to the U.S. Now, Brazil can perform, so they are going to be in the driver’s seat as long as they can get soybeans to the coast,” he predicted.
The soybean crop in Brazil is looking good at this time, and Meuret believes that a majority of the crop will be sold in about 30 days.
“We’re going to see Brazil’s crop and Argentina’s crop get bigger. World stocks will grow in soybeans, but it feels like corn stocks will decline a little bit,” he continued.
Grain stock funds appear to be making an impact in the marketplace, as they are markedly short.
“Funds are extremely short for wheat. They are extremely short for corn, and in fact, it’s a record if we add both of those together,” Meuret stated.
He continued, “As a producer, it’s important to know that funds are on one side of the boat, and eventually the boat will tip over.”
Overall, however, the markets do not appear to be affecting planting schedules in the U.S.
“I don’t think the farmer has really paid too much attention to the fluctuations, and I think he will stick with some of his normal rotations and maybe refine them a little bit as we get closer to spring, depending on prices,” he said.
Natasha Wheeler is editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup and can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org